Europe-s changing face: How migration is reshaping the continent

Europe-s changing face: How migration is reshaping the continent

A new demographic model projects migrant-background majorities within decades, even as housing, security, and border failures fuel a backlash
The native population in several European countries could become a minority within the next two decades if current demographic trends continue, according to a new model projecting the long-term effects of migration and declining birth rates.
Meanwhile, European governments continue to portray migration as an investment in the future, even as local communities grapple with high housing costs, overstretched public services, and persistent failures in border enforcement.
Who is doing the counting?The Demography Dashboard was published earlier this week by the Institute for Remigration (IFR), run by Austrian activist and author Martin Sellner. He campaigns for sharply reducing immigration and encouraging or enforcing migrant departures, with the aim of preserving native majorities.
The model uses official national population statistics to project how migration, births, and deaths could change Europe’s population. It generally carries forward migration levels averaged over 2015-2024 and holds birth and death rates constant.
Its migrant category includes arrivals from Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere, as well as other European countries, both inside and outside the EU. Depending on the country, it also includes locally born descendants and people who have acquired a national passport. Citizenship alone does not remove someone from the category: Germany, for example, counts people who were born without German citizenship or have at least one parent who was.  
Native generally means people without that migration background, but the definitions vary. Britain’s calculation uses ethnicity instead – White British and White Irish people count as native, while all other ethnic groups fall into the model’s migrant category, regardless of birthplace or passport.  
Read more The IFR’s projected dates show what could happen if its assumptions about migration, fertility, and mortality hold. According to Eurostat data, the EU’s fertility rate has dropped from 1.54 children per woman in 2014 to 1.34 in 2024, below the 2.1 replacement level. Deaths have outnumbered births since 2012, with 10.7 deaths against 7.9 births per 1,000 residents in 2024.
A generation of changeSwitzerland is projected to cross the dashboard’s 50% threshold first, in 2038, from a modeled migrant-background share of 41.2% in 2026. Belgians will become a minority in their own country in 2044, Germany will cross the threshold a year later, and Sweden a year after that (2046). Their modeled immigrant starting shares were respectively 36.6%, 32%, and 36.8%.
The UK is also expected to reach that threshold in 2053, starting at 27.2%, while Spain follows in 2057, from a 25.4% base. For France, the dashboard cites a separate study projecting a similar shift around 2050 under its high-migration scenario.
Read more Sustained immigration, alongside aging populations and low birth rates, are the primary drivers of the demographic shifts, according to dashboard data. Arrivals also include workers, students, family members, and asylum seekers from Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere. Ukrainians have added another large European component, with some 4.43 million holding temporary protection in the EU at the end of July.
More arrivals, fewer affordable homesAcross Europe, immigration has added demand for housing and public services that were already struggling to cope. Spain and Ireland are stark examples of governments admitting newcomers without ensuring there are enough homes and infrastructure.
In Spain, immigration-driven population growth has outpaced housing construction, while soaring rents have pushed residents into the streets. The eviction of an 87-year-old woman from her Madrid home of 70 years last month has become a rallying point for sprawling protests